Implied probability and expected move · Demo

QQQ against SPY: whose weekly expected move is larger

Recorded in cvforge on July 5, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

The coming weeks’ implied expected move for QQQ and SPY side by side, which is the cleanest read on how much more movement is priced into tech.

Exact prompt

Give me the upcoming weeks' expected move as implied by the options market. I want to visualize $QQQ vs $SPY

Data cadence

Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value

How to read it

Expressed in percent rather than points, this is a direct comparison of how much more movement the market prices into the Nasdaq than the broad index. QQQ is normally higher, and the ratio between them is more stable than either level.

That ratio is the thing to watch. When it widens, the market is pricing a tech-specific event; when it compresses, whatever is coming is expected to hit both. Either is more informative than the absolute numbers.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
  • Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.

Related demos

Search focus: qqq vs spy expected move. Related: weekly expected move comparison, nasdaq vs sp500 implied move. Originally posted on X.