ServiceNow implied probabilities over 90 days
Recorded in cvforge on May 18, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026
The market-implied probability distribution for NOW across the next 90 days, drawn as an intuitive graphic rather than a table of option prices.
Exact prompt
what are the market implied probabilities for $NOW - give me the next 90 days, I want an intuitive visualization
Data cadence
Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.
Plan requirements
Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.
Fields used
implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value
How to read it
Ninety days is far enough out that the chain thins considerably — fewer expirations, wider spreads on the wings — and the distribution is correspondingly less precise than a two-week one. The shape is still meaningful; the exact probability at a specific level is not.
Check which expirations actually exist in that window before leaning on the numbers. A quarterly expiration with real open interest supports a reading; a sparsely traded weekly three months out does not.
Change it
The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.
Limitations
- Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
- Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
- Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
- Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
- These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
- Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.
Related demos
- MSFT: implied cones against what actually happened
- A controllable SPX expected-move and cone chart
- This week’s SPX expected move and its bounds
Search focus: implied probability distribution 90 days. Related: now stock implied probabilities, 90 day option implied distribution. Originally posted on X.