MSFT: implied cones against what actually happened
Recorded in cvforge on June 30, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026
Implied probability cones for MSFT drawn alongside realised outcomes, which turns a forward-looking band into something you can score after the fact.
Exact prompt
Give me a dashboard showing realized vs implied probability cones. let's start with $MSFT.
Data cadence
Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.
Plan requirements
Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.
Fields used
implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value
How to read it
A cone is a prediction, and predictions can be scored. Overlaying what the stock actually did on the band that was implied at the time is the check almost nobody runs, and it is the fastest way to develop a feel for whether a name’s options are habitually rich or cheap.
Read it as a tendency, not a verdict. Realised outcomes landing inside the one-deviation band more often than the model implies is the signature of a persistent volatility risk premium — the usual state of index and large-cap options — and it is a statement about pricing rather than about predictability.
Change it
The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.
Limitations
- Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
- Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
- Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
- Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
- These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
- Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.
Related demos
- A year of SPX implied cones against realised outcomes
- A controllable SPX expected-move and cone chart
- This week’s SPX expected move and its bounds
Search focus: realized vs implied probability cone. Related: test implied volatility accuracy, msft implied vs actual move. Originally posted on X.