Implied probability and expected move · Demo

MU below 600 or above 1000: two-sided implied odds

Recorded in cvforge on May 19, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

Both tails priced at once — the implied probability of MU falling below 600 against rising above 1000 over 60 days — which is where skew becomes concrete.

Exact prompt

what are the market implied probabilities of $MU falling below 600 vs going above 1000 in the next 60 days?

Data cadence

Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value

How to read it

Asking about both tails in one prompt is the version of this question worth asking. A single probability is hard to calibrate against; a pair invites the comparison, and the comparison is where skew stops being an abstraction.

If the downside level is closer in percentage terms yet the implied probabilities are similar, the chain is charging more for downside protection — the ordinary equity pattern. The asymmetry is the finding, and it is priced rather than predicted.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
  • Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.

Related demos

Search focus: implied probability two price levels. Related: upside vs downside probability options, mu tail probability comparison. Originally posted on X.