Implied probability and expected move · Demo

Comparing expected move: NVDA against MU

Recorded in cvforge on June 11, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

Expected move for two semiconductor names side by side, derived from ATM implied volatility and shown in both dollar and percentage terms.

Exact prompt

Create a dashboard that allows me to compare the expected move of NVDA and MU.

Data cadence

Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

What the agent built

  • The chain data has usable implied volatility and underlying prices. I’m going to calculate expected move from ATM implied vol (spot * ATM IV * sqrt(days/365)) and expose both dollar and percent comparisons across expirations.
  • Built the $NVDA vs $MU expected move dashboard:
  • It now compares:
  • ATM-IV expected move term structure for NVDA and MU
  • Selected-expiration normalized range from spot
  • Dollar range, ATM strike, ATM IV, DTE, and relative MU/NVDA move ratio
  • Call/put IV smile around spot for the selected horizon

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value

How to read it

The build explains its own method, which is worth reading: expected move from ATM implied volatility scaled by the square root of time to expiration. That is the standard approximation, and seeing it stated makes the number auditable rather than magic.

Both units are shown for a reason. Dollars matter for sizing a position; percentages are the only way to compare two stocks trading at different prices. Quoting the dollar figure across names is a common way to reach a conclusion that is really about share price.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
  • Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.

Related demos

Search focus: compare expected move two stocks. Related: nvda vs mu implied move, expected move percentage comparison. Originally posted on X.