The chance of MU falling below 700 by a given date

Recorded in cvforge on May 17, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

A direct question — what is the probability MU is below 700 by May 22 — answered from the option chain, with the implied distribution and price-path cone drawn out.

What the agent built

• shows probability values
• shows probability graphic
• shows market implied distribution
• shows price-path cone

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value

How to read it

This is the demo that best shows what an option chain is for. The chain prices every strike and expiration, and those prices imply a probability distribution over where the underlying could be — so “what are the odds of below 700 by the 22nd” has a market-derived answer, not an opinion.

The number is risk-neutral. It is the probability implied by prices, which embeds the premium people charge for carrying downside risk, and that premium makes implied downside probabilities persistently higher than a purely statistical estimate. Read it as what the market charges, not as a forecast.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

• Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
• Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
• Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
• Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
• These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
• Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.

Related demos

• META implied price ranges over the next 60 days
• SPX expected move over 30 days, with expiry markers
• Building an SPX probability cone at one and two standard deviations

Search focus: probability stock falls below a price by date. Related: mu downside probability from options, market implied probability of a price level. Originally posted on X.