Implied probability and expected move · Demo

META implied price ranges over the next 60 days

Recorded in cvforge on May 20, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

Sixty days of implied probability ranges for META drawn as nested cones, so the price bands the option market is pricing are readable at a glance.

Exact prompt

What are the implied probability ranges/cones for $META for the next 60 days - show me an intuitive graphic where I can see the price ranges/cones

Data cadence

Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value

How to read it

Sixty days on a single name behaves differently from the same horizon on an index: single-stock volatility is higher, so the cone is wider, and it usually contains an earnings date, which puts a step in the middle of an otherwise smooth expansion.

That step is the detail to look for. A cone that widens smoothly is pricing ordinary drift; one that jumps around a specific date is pricing an event, and the size of the jump is the market’s price for that event.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • These are risk-neutral probabilities implied by option prices, not forecasts. They shift with volatility as much as with expectations.
  • Anything derived from implied volatility inherits the model behind it; treat the numbers as a market-implied range, not a measurement.

Related demos

Search focus: meta implied price range 60 days. Related: implied probability ranges chart, stock price cone next 60 days. Originally posted on X.