Implied probability and expected move · Demo

What SNDK options imply, expiry by expiry

Recorded in cvforge on July 28, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 31, 2026

The straddle-implied band for every listed expiry on Sandisk, with term structure, smile, open interest walls and max pain read off the same chain.

Exact prompt

Give me a dashboard with an analysis of what options are implying for SNDK.

Data cadence

Live U.S. option snapshots, refreshed through the session. Open interest is an end-of-previous-day figure and updates once daily.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

What the agent built

  • Key metrics: spot price, implied volatility, implied move, implied band, put/call ratio and max pain.
  • A chart of the implied band per expiry, taken from the straddle.
  • A table of expected move per expiry: ATM IV, straddle, move in percent and dollars, put/call open interest and max pain.
  • Charts for the IV term structure, the implied volatility smile, open interest walls and volume by strike.

Fields used

implied_volatility, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value, open_interest, day_volume

How to read it

One name, one question: what does the chain price? The per-expiry table is where the answer lives — a single implied move for “the stock” hides that the front week and the back month can disagree sharply about how much is coming, and the term structure chart is that disagreement drawn out.

Two cautions on the extras. The band from a straddle is a price for a range, not a probability that the stock stays inside it. Max pain is an arithmetic property of where open interest happens to sit, and it is widely read as a magnet it has never been shown to be.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • An implied band is a price for a range, not a probability that the range holds.
  • Max pain is an arithmetic property of where open interest sits, not a level the stock is pulled toward.

Related demos

Search focus: implied move by expiry table. Related: what options are implying for a stock, straddle implied band per expiration. Originally posted on X.