The AAPL earnings setup: implied move, estimates and past reactions
Recorded in cvforge on July 27, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 31, 2026
What the chain prices before an Apple print, where consensus sits, and how the stock actually moved after previous quarters — the three normally live in three different tools.
Exact prompt
AAPL earnings are coming up. Give me comprehensive dashboard to understand the outlook. I want to see: expected move and what options are implying, estimates, historical post earnings moves (how price behaved on misses/beats)
Data cadence
Live option snapshots for the priced-in move, plus company estimates and earnings history from the FMP packages.
Plan requirements
Runs on the free cvforge app. Fundamentals come from the FMP packages included on every data plan.
What the agent built
- Options: the implied expected move, ATM IV and the IV-based move, skew and positioning, expected move by expiry, and an IV smile.
- Estimates: EPS and revenue consensus, the beat/miss track record, and forward quarterly and annual estimates.
- Historical post-earnings moves: one-day reaction by quarter, EPS surprise against price move, the distribution of one-day moves, average reaction by outcome, and a table of actuals, surprises and reactions.
Fields used
implied_volatility, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price, fair_market_value, delta, estimates
How to read it
Three questions that are normally three separate tools: what the chain is pricing, what analysts expect, and what the stock has actually done afterwards. The last one is the corrective — an implied move only means something next to the moves that followed previous prints.
Be careful with the track record. A dozen quarters is a small sample, and a run of beats describes the past rather than the setup. The expected move is also mechanically inflated by the event: implied volatility rises into a print and collapses after it, whichever way the stock goes.
Change it
The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.
Limitations
- Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
- Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
- Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
- Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
- The priced-in move is what the chain implies before the print, not a prediction of the print.
- A beat/miss record covers a dozen or so quarters, which is too small a sample to carry to the next one.
- Estimates arrive on the provider’s schedule, so the newest revisions can lag the announcement.
Related demos
- INTC implied move plus a history of beats and misses
- What NFLX options price in before earnings
- A full TSM quarterly earnings report from one prompt
Search focus: aapl earnings expected move dashboard. Related: apple earnings implied move, post earnings move history dashboard. Originally posted on X.