Non-farm payrolls against SPX: expected versus actual
Recorded in cvforge on July 3, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026
Every recent payrolls print — consensus against actual — aligned with SPX closes, with a scatter and regression to test whether the surprise explains the move.
Exact prompt
Give me a dashboard showing the relationship between non-farm payrolls (expected vs actual) and $SPX.
Data cadence
Economic release series and treasury rates, with live index option snapshots for the market side.
Plan requirements
Runs on the free cvforge app. Fundamentals come from the FMP packages included on every data plan.
What the agent built
- NFP consensus + actual from the FMP economic
- SPX daily closes via ^GSPC, aligned to each release
- KPI row — latest print (actual vs. est), consensus
- The relationship (scatter) — payroll surprise (x)
- Over time (3 stacked panels, one shared date axis)
- consensus (hollow) vs. actual (filled dumbbell)
Fields used
economic releases, treasury rates, underlying_price, implied_volatility
How to read it
The surprise, not the level, is what a market can react to — a strong print that was expected is already priced. Aligning consensus and actual to each release date and then plotting the surprise against the index move on that day is the right way to ask the question.
Expect a weak relationship, and read that as the finding. Single-indicator explanations of index moves rarely survive a scatter plot, and the regression line’s flatness is more informative than any individual point on it.
Change it
The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.
Limitations
- Economic series are revised after first publication, so a historical comparison can change as revisions land.
- Lining a release up against an index move shows coincidence, not causation.
- Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
Related demos
- Next week’s economic calendar as a terminal-style table
- Twenty years of GDP, CPI and Fed funds against SPX
Search focus: non farm payrolls vs spx. Related: nfp surprise market reaction chart, economic surprise vs index move. Originally posted on X.