Correlation and relative value · Demo

MU realised volatility against implied, upside versus downside

Recorded in cvforge on July 3, 2026 by ConvexValue · Published July 25, 2026

Where MU options are priced relative to how the stock has actually moved, split by side, so the question "are these expensive?" gets a directional answer.

Exact prompt

Give me a dashboard showing realized vol vs implied vol for $MU. I want to know relative pricing of downside and upside.

Data cadence

Live option snapshots for current pricing, with historical stock prices for the realised and correlation series.

Plan requirements

Runs on the free cvforge app and the free data tier (20 requests/hour). No card needed.

Fields used

implied_volatility, delta, strike_price, expiration_date, underlying_price

How to read it

The comparison is inherently lopsided: implied volatility is a forward-looking price and realised volatility is a backward-looking measurement. A gap between them is not a mispricing, it is the risk premium — the compensation for carrying the position through whatever happens next.

Splitting it by side is what makes it actionable. Downside implied volatility trading far above realised while upside sits close to it is the ordinary state of equity options, and the degree of that asymmetry is what changes. Read the spread, not the level.

Change it

The prompt is the interface. Ask for a different ticker, a different expiration window, or an extra column in the same sentence style and the agent edits the app in place — you do not start over, and you do not wait for anyone to build it.

Limitations

  • Snapshot data, not a transaction tape: the build reads the chain as it stands, so it cannot attribute a trade to a buyer or a seller.
  • Open interest updates once a day, so an intraday volume/OI comparison is always this session’s volume against yesterday’s open interest.
  • Contract coverage is U.S. listed equities, ETFs and indices. Indices use the I: prefix, for example I:SPX.
  • Current per-contract valuation is Massive fair market value (FMV), a proprietary estimate. cvforge does not provide option bids, asks, midpoint, quote sizes, NBBO or last trades, and FMV is not an executable quote.
  • Correlation is sensitive to the window and the timeframe you pick; a different lookback can reverse the conclusion.
  • Comparing implied against realised volatility compares a forward-looking price to a backward-looking measurement.

Related demos

Search focus: realized vs implied volatility chart. Related: implied volatility vs realized volatility tool, option relative pricing by side. Originally posted on X.